U.S. Recession Probability
Very LowEconomy is firmly in expansion territory
Latest:0.80%
+0.18pp
as of Dec 2025
Historical Trend
20% 50%
This model has accurately identified every U.S. recession since 1967. Values above 50% have historically coincided with NBER-dated recessions. Data is published with a ~2 month lag.
Economic Indicators
Key macroeconomic data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system. Updated automatically — data freshness depends on each series' release schedule.
Real GDP
$31490.1B
+392.04 (+1.26%)
2025-10-01GDP
CPI (All Items)
326.6
+0.56 (+0.17%)
2026-01-01CPIAUCSL
Unemployment Rate
4.30%
-0.10 (-2.27%)
2026-01-01UNRATE
Fed Funds Rate
3.64%
-0.08 (-2.15%)
2026-01-01FEDFUNDS
10Y Treasury Yield
4.05%
+0.01 (+0.25%)
2026-02-25DGS10
10Y-2Y Spread
0.60%
+0.00 (+0.00%)
2026-02-26T10Y2Y
Nonfarm Payrolls
158627K
+130.00 (+0.08%)
2026-01-01PAYEMS
Consumer Sentiment
56.4
+3.50 (+6.62%)
2026-01-01UMCSENT
M2 Money Supply
$22442.1B
+75.90 (+0.34%)
2026-01-01M2SL
30Y Mortgage Rate
5.98%
-0.03 (-0.50%)
2026-02-26MORTGAGE30US
Case-Shiller Home Price
327.5
-0.90 (-0.27%)
2025-12-01CSUSHPINSA
Initial Jobless Claims
212000K
+4000.00 (+1.92%)
2026-02-21ICSA
Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y)
About Economic Indicators
Data Source
All data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED provides over 800,000 economic time series from 100+ sources.
Using Macro Data
- Leading indicators: Initial claims, consumer sentiment, and housing starts often signal economic turns.
- Yield curve: The 10Y-2Y spread historically inverts before recessions.
- Fed policy: Watch the Fed Funds Rate and M2 for monetary policy direction.